Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
