A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
